Are the Reds the Biggest Threat to the Brewers in the NL Central?

January 5, 2024 Sportuniverse2 Uncategorized 0

Are the Reds the Biggest Threat to the Brewers in the NL Central?

 

The MLB offseason is far from over, but one of the Brewers’ division rivals is rumored to have finished building their team. The question is; are the Reds the biggest threat in the NL Central?

The NL Central has been in a constant state of flux, with experts and fans alike having trouble picking a winner of the division for the past handful of years. No one has repeated as the division winner since the Cubs in 2017, so a Brewers repeat is anything but guaranteed. As it stands now, every team in the Central has a chance to dethrone Milwaukee, but perhaps no team has a better chance than the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds had an interesting 2023 campaign. They got off to a slow start, before enjoying a red-hot June and July, then cooling off down the stretch. They enjoyed breakout seasons from T.J. Friedl, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer, and had an electrifying debut from then-top prospect Elly De La Cruz that made Cincinnati the hottest baseball town in America for two summer months. They struggled to find reliable starting pitching and consistent bullpen work, despite good seasons from closer Alexis Diaz and starter Andrew Abbott. Notably, the Reds struggled to beat the Brewers last year, ending with a 3-10 record against Milwaukee. They would finish the season 82-80, but are undoubtedly aiming for a higher win total this year.

So that begs the question: Where will Cincinnati’s improvement come from?

Offseason Additions
The Reds haven’t made the big splash some expected, but they have added to a weak pitching staff with some proven major leaguers. They first padded their bullpen by adding pitchers Emilio Pagan (2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 IP in 2023) and Nick Martinez (3.43 ERA in 110 1/3 IP), both of whom found success in their roles last year. They also added veteran starter Frankie Montas, who only pitched a third of an inning last year, but did finish sixth in the Cy Young voting as recently as 2021. Perhaps their biggest splash was signing infielder Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45-million contract after his breakout season in 2023, wherein he slashed .251/.336/.471 with the Nationals and Cubs. In total, the Reds have committed $105.25 million to their roster for 2024, a number nearly $10 million higher than the Brewers’ projected payroll.

By adding Pagán and Martinez, the Reds are aiming to find some consistency behind their star closer, Díaz, and with the addition of Montas they are hoping for a dependable back-end rotation arm, with a high ceiling. The signing of Candelario, while expensive, raises their offensive ceiling, and gives the team flexibility within their infield, as Candelario can play both third and first base. To hear the team tell it, they’re essentially done making other major additions.

Better Health and Internal Improvements
There was no player the Reds missed more last year than Hunter Greene, who pitched in only 112 innings due to a hip injury.  Despite never putting together an above-average season, Greene’s raw pitching talent is Cy Young-caliber. The Reds expect Greene to be their ace, and a fully healthy season will be the first step in that process. Their other starters battled injuries, as they had no pitcher eclipse 150 innings, and only four got past the century mark in innings. The additions of Montas, Pagán, and Martinez will take some of the workload off the depth-challenged 2023 pitching staff, so the team should be able to find more consistency in 2024.

The Reds will also count on the further development of their young stars, specifically De La Cruz, who has obvious All-Star potential. Bounce-back seasons from Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson could make a difference for them. Players like Will Benson and Noelvi Marte will benefit from more playing time next year, too, while McLain, Steer, and Friedl will aim to continue to build on their impressive 2023 campaigns.

Obviously, they’ll need the largest improvements is in starting pitching. Greene, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Lodolo will all have to perform better next year, while Montas and Martinez will need to be consistent in their rotation spots, as well. All five men have the talent to form a good rotation, but that remains to be seen.

Conclusion
The seeds of improvement have already been planted in Cincinnati, but will it be enough to contend for a division title? Simply put, yes. There’s no reason the Reds won’t be in the hunt. They’ve made the most substantial additions in the offseason, and despite losing former MVP Joey Votto, the Reds arguably didn’t lose any real value on their roster. Like Milwaukee, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, they have numerous promising young players who will improve as they spend more time in the league. Overall, they might be in the best position to succeed.

There’s no other team in the NL Central that has greater potential to improve during the coming season than the Reds. They may have finished 10 games behind Milwaukee, but they’ve done more than enough to help close that gap. With the Cubs still yet to make offseason upgrades to their roster, the Reds might just be that single biggest threat to Milwaukee in the division. Do you believe Cincinnati can seriously challenge the Crew in 2024?

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