The dog days are here. The holidays are over, and the treadmill is staring at me, waiting to be used again. NBA players are almost halfway through the regular season, so their bodies are starting to feel it. The All-Star break is close enough that visions of a vacation can be briefly entertained. Trade rumors begin to swirl and roam the ether, further cluttering the mind. It is hard enough for any player to get through January, but for the Mavericks, who remain without Luka Doncic at least through the month (due to a calf strain) and Kyrie Irving for hopefully just another week or two (due to a bulging disk in his back), the dog days have turned into a slog.
Statistics can be noisy, but this one is clear: before their 21-point win over the Lakers on Tuesday night, the Mavs were 0-10 (since the trade for Irving) in games in which both Irving and Doncic were out. This is the deepest team in the Doncic era, and that depth will continue to be put to the test as Dallas plays the NBA’s toughest January schedule. How, then, can we look at the rest of this month and develop a blueprint for success that will enable this team to withstand the headwinds of a brutal Western Conference?
It all starts on the defensive end. Sixty-four points per game are in street clothes when you include Daniel Gafford, who is out with a sprained ankle. There simply isn’t enough playmaking and offensive firepower available if the defense is giving up too many points. Protecting the rim by packing the paint and rotating to 3-point shooters is essential. Against the Lakers, the Mavs showed the value of strategically doubling LeBron James and Anthony Davis while still being able to rotate out. Force the ball into the hands of the players you want to shoot and the places you want them to shoot from. With Gafford out, the Mavs went with Maxi Kleber at the 5 when Dereck Lively II sat, allowing them to switch everything and stay in front. Kleber’s basketball IQ and communication on that end led to the improved defense overall.
A successful defensive possession ends with the securing of a rebound. This enables the Mavs to get out and run. Playing with pace will be key during this stretch, as the Mavs will be able to get into their offense quickly and in flow against cross-matches and a defense that isn’t set. Jason Kidd told me that in those instances, he wants a shot up in eight seconds or less (generously giving the Mavs an extra second compared to what Steve Nash’s Suns got).
With pace comes the issue of turnovers. And turnovers often lead to easy buckets the other way. Because of poor rebounding and turnovers, the Mavs had 14 and 24 fewer shot attempts in losses to the Rockets and Kings last week, which is obviously problematic when scoring is hard to come by. Forcing turnovers and winning the turnover battle is crucial for the Mavs. The goal is 13 or fewer per game, which is the number they had against the Lakers.
Turnovers are not only a result of pace but also of players being thrust into new roles. When your two best action initiators are out, you always hear the “next man up” mantra. That doesn’t just mean doing more of what you did previously. It also means taking on different roles and doing things that may be outside your comfort zone. This team was built with players whose skill sets complement Doncic and Irving. With both out, everyone is forced to adjust, and there can be growing pains.
Offensively, along with quick baskets from pace, the Mavs are striving to attack the basket and target certain players in their actions. If there are weak links on the defensive end, then go at themthe way they did against the Lakers’ Austin Reaves and Dalton Knecht. This results in baskets inside, fouls, or collapsing the defense and creating more open looks from deep, which the Mavs converted at a 47 percent rate on Tuesday night. An attacking and re-driving mindset can help you get into the bonus earlier and earn freebies when you are in desperate need of points.
Secondary playmaking from Quentin Grimes, Jaden Hardy, and Naji Marshall will be key during this stretch. Consistency from these contributors is what Kidd is looking for when he calls their number. Small ball also enables Kleber to drag a rim protector away from the basket, opening up driving lanes and allowing him to cut to the basket, take a defender with him and create open looks for others from deep.
But the lion’s share of pressure will be on Spencer Dinwiddie, who, as a minimum-salary signing and someone who was out of the rotation on opening night, is now being handed the keys to the half-court engine. He is vital to keeping things organized offensively and getting the team into its sets early in the clock with ball and body movement. P.J. Washington benefits from this, as he will be looked upon to shoulder more scoring responsibility. This also will help unlock Klay Thompson, who, when the right sets are run for him, can unload quickly and in bursts.
While we are unsure of exactly when Irving will return and are still waiting on Doncic to be re-evaluated, the goal should be to break even for the rest of the month. Get six wins: at home against Portland on Thursday night, two in New Orleans (even with Zion Williamson back), home against Washington, and on the road against Charlotte and Detroit. The others are rough, but Tuesday proved anything can happen. That would put the Mavs at 27-22, with reinforcements back or on the way. This would be one win better than their record after 49 games last season. A stretch run at full strength can hopefully replicate the 14-3 stretch earlier this season when the roster was healthy.
The victory over the Lakers was one of the best character wins for the Mavs all season. It showed that after the initial shock of knowing they had to face this gauntlet without their two best players, they are starting to build an identity around who is available. The Orlando Magic looked out of sync here in early November, right after the injury to Paolo Banchero. But they adjusted—and won. The Grizzlies were without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane on Monday night, but last year’s injuries helped them forge an identity of resilience. Kidd told me the character of this team will be built during these hard times.
The rest of this month will be filled with highs and lows. Defense, pace, limiting turnovers, attacking the basket—all while forging a new identity—should allow the Mavs to weather the storm. Bringing energy and effort on a regular basis will be needed, with 12 games in the next 22 days and only two instances with more than one day off.
Practices are gone, and the plane is being rebuilt on the fly. But the game against the Lakers showed what is possible during these dog days. With 12 teams battling for 10 playoff and play-in spots, the Mavs have to survive January. If they do, they will be better for it come April, May, and June.
Leave a Reply