In a recent article, Allan Mitchell examined the Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending situation, analyzing whether goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard are at fault for the team’s early struggles. Although the Oilers’ 2024-25 start is better than last season’s, the team’s performance remains below expectations. Special teams, particularly the penalty kill, have emerged as an area of concern, with some fans criticizing the goalies. Mitchell contends, however, that while penalty-killing performance could improve, the Oilers’ goalie tandem is otherwise solid.
Mitchell argues that concerns about goaltending are primarily valid in penalty-killing situations, where the team has faltered. Yet, overall, he sees the duo of Skinner and Pickard as capable of supporting a successful season. He notes that aside from the penalty kill, Edmonton’s goalies have performed reasonably well in five-on-five situations, showing promise for the season. However, this analysis received pushback from a fan who argued Mitchell missed a crucial aspect of evaluating goalie performance, specifically advanced metrics like Goals Saved Above Expected (xGSA).
The fan emphasized xGSA as a more accurate metric than traditional stats like save percentage (SV%) or goals against average (GAA), as it accounts for the quality of shots faced by the goalie. Unlike conventional stats, xGSA differentiates between routine saves and high-danger chances, which provides a more nuanced assessment of a goalie’s ability to handle challenging shots. This metric is often used to identify elite goalies, such as Igor Shesterkin, Connor Hellebuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Jake Oettinger, who consistently excel in this area. According to the fan, the Oilers’ goalies fall short when evaluated with this advanced statistic.
Currently, Skinner ranks 66th out of 70 NHL goalies in xGSA, suggesting he struggles with high-quality scoring chances. Additionally, he ranks 42nd in SV%, a number the fan describes as potentially flattering, given that most goalies can maintain decent stats in even-strength situations. The fan argues that the true challenge for Edmonton’s goaltenders comes during shorthanded play, where Skinner and Pickard’s performances lag. Skinner has allowed eight goals on 33 penalty-kill shots, yielding a save percentage of .757, which ranks him 60th among NHL goalies in this context. Pickard fares even worse with a .563 save percentage, ranking 68th.
Ultimately, this critique highlights a key issue for the Oilers: while goaltending may not be the sole problem, the inability to prevent goals in high-danger situations, particularly on the penalty kill, is a significant concern. Advanced metrics like xGSA reveal underlying struggles that standard stats may overlook, suggesting the team’s goaltending remains an area to watch as the season progresses.
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