The Houston Texans made a bold play in the 2023 draft when they traded up to select Will Anderson Jr. from Alabama. No one took issue with the selection of Anderson, as he had been the consensus top edge rusher since his sophomore year of college.
The noteworthy part of the transaction was that it left Houston without their own first round pick in 2024. While the team still had the Cleveland Browns’ selection via the Deshaun Watson trade, some found the move risky. The team invested multiple first-round picks and a second and a third in Anderson, a price tag rarely seen for a non-quarterback.
However, Anderson’s recent play makes it easy to see why the Texans were so eager to land him. His strong finish to the season has catapulted him into the Defensive Rookie of the Year discussion.
An early-season afterthought
Due to the play of other rookies, Anderson’s start to the season went largely unnoticed
Will Anderson Jr. has spent a great deal of his rookie season flying under the radar due to the performance of another Houston rookie, QB C.J. Stroud. Quarterback will always be the league’s premier position, and Stroud’s historic start to his NFL career made it nearly impossible to pay attention to any other Texans rookie.
It also didn’t help that other rookie defenders like Jalen Carter and Devon Witherspoon got off to scorching hot starts. As a result, Anderson became an afterthought in the NFL landscape. He would occasionally be mentioned, but it was usually in reference to Stroud or another rookie.
Despite the modest sack totals early in the year, Anderson was a key contributor on the defense, earning one of the highest PFF grades and pass rush win rates for any defender, let alone a rookie.
Unfortunately, fans wanted to see more from a player drafted third overall. The average viewer won’t delve into advanced analytics or film breakdowns to understand a player’s value; they want one that jumps out of the TV as a game-changer.
Building momentum to end the year
Anderson has caught fire in recent weeks while his competitors have cooled
As the season has progressed, Anderson has transitioned from the former to the latter. After recording a single sack through his first seven contests, Anderson has come alive to end the year. Anderson’s registered five sacks in his last five games, bringing his season total to seven. In addition to the sacks, he’s added 44 total tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and 22 quarterback hits.
According to ESPN, Anderson is tied for third in pass rush win rate, trailing only Defensive Player of the Year hopefuls Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons. This figure suggests that Anderson has been doing his job as well as anyone in the league, and the lower sack totals are more circumstantial, rather than a product of his performance.
Opposing offenses appear to have noticed Anderson’s play, as he has faced a 23% double-team rate, the fifth highest in the league. While Anderson has had a late-season emergence, most of his contemporaries have faded. After coming out of the gate on fire, Carter only has 2.5 sacks in his last 10 games, and the Eagles’ defense as a whole has collapsed down the stretch.
Witherspoon has remained solid, but the lack of on-ball production has caused his case to take a massive hit. Christian Gonzalez of the Patriots was solidifying himself as a favorite for the award before a season-ending injury ended his rookie year early. Rams nose tackle Kobie Turner has also been making a late-season surge, shooting up the odds table to third after a 2.5-sack, two-TFL performance in Week 17.
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